ACUS11 KWNS 160308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160308=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-160415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...western North Dakota into far northwestern South
Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 422...

Valid 160308Z - 160415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 422 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues within WW422, with potential for
large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move
eastward into western North Dakota, with potential for damaging
winds 60-75 mph (some instances 75+ mph). This line of storms
continues to move into a favorably unstable environment with strong
deep layer shear and steep lapse rates. More favorable low-level
wind profiles are observed across northwestern North Dakota, where
0-3 km shear values are around 40-45 kts with 0-1 km shear around 20
kts. This may lead to some increase of risk for embedded
mesovortices and a tornado or two within the line.=20

Further south across southwestern North Dakota near the South Dakota
border, more discrete convection is ongoing with history of
producing hail up to baseball size. Given the weaker low-level shear
profiles in this region, the main threats are likely to continue to
be large hail and damaging wind, though a tornado cannot be ruled
out with more mature supercell modes.

..Thornton.. 06/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7FB_iGogV3Hm4Jiydg9D8-CZDz2Jp84jyj9vaVK_cAAVjdcERYzLjun6oAOH4jFh-hodRxwX3= LjFBHaXWhFDfHtYu8I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

LAT...LON 47560404 48930402 48950286 48740224 48120175 46840104
46380064 45790082 45640183 45610242 45680314 46380381
47560404=20


=3D =3D =3D
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