ACUS11 KWNS 211846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211846=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-212015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern Vermont...southern New Hampshire...Massachusetts...Connecticut...Rhode Island

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 211846Z - 212015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A locally higher damaging gust threat exists across
portions of New England in advance of clustering thunderstorm cells.
Conditions will be monitored for the need of a WW issuance pending
continued favorable trends for more damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Pulse cells and smaller multicellular clusters are
attempting to organize into a loosely organized MCS in far eastern
NY. Given the potential for cold pool mergers, preceded by steep
low-level lapse rates, it is possible that a more organized damaging
gust threat could materialize over the next few hours. 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear (whose vectors are oriented roughly normal to
the long-axis of the potential MCS) may also contribute to the
organization of an efficient damaging-gust-producing thunderstorm
complex. Should further convective organization occur, a WW issuance
eventually may be needed.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/21/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4aBxun7X6xnDIFI_DSRVNjjd_DcH5mQPFA1d6BulcDeGG6vrtEQHw4Cy7EHC-RsEW637dEsx_= TdbJvBkRd_NQVm0F_o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 42697381 43037361 43177310 43167119 42617080 42067076
41597131 41447211 41507286 41607331 42067378 42697381=20


=3D =3D =3D
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