ACUS11 KWNS 222033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222032=20
COZ000-UTZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Utah into western Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222032Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind and hail is increasing
across portions of eastern UT into western CO. A WW issuance is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity
across eastern UT/western CO along the entrance region of a 300 mb
jet streak, where a well-mixed boundary layer is now in place.
Latest MRMS-MESH radar data suggests some of the stronger storms may
already be producing at least marginally severe (i.e. 1 inch
diameter) hail. Surface temperatures approaching the upper 80s F
beneath 9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest
low-level curvature but considerable mid-level elongation, which
will promote continued multicell/supercell development through the
afternoon. The strongest storms will be accompanied by some severe
wind/hail threat. However, the severe threat should remain isolated,
and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9QICBlTJWzb3teSImlVKzkhT6z2xNvfVqLZKVvh0WK7dUYOCqML5ftTNqotpr3TFhfb1oT6YK= fvt-P9KCsv0wifpmlQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 37901173 40281098 40861015 40900904 40550753 39370717
38010711 37390795 37130931 37091013 37231119 37901173=20


=3D =3D =3D
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