ACUS11 KWNS 251301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251301=20
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-251500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...Far Southeast IA...Central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251301Z - 251500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible from
southeast Iowa into central Illinois over the next few hours.
Sporadic/isolated nature to the storms should preclude the need for
a watch.

DISCUSSION...A large area of warm-air advection initiated
thunderstorms continues from southern IA across northern IL. While
individual storms within this region are generally moving eastward,
the overall area of precipitation has started shifting
southeastward, likely in response to the southeastward shift of the
low-level jet. Steep mid-level lapse rates support strong elevated
buoyancy across the region, as sampled in the 12Z ILX sounding.
Moderate vertical shear exists within this region as well, with the
12Z ILX sounding sampling around 35 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. A
sporadic intensification of the cells within this general area is
possible, with occasional isolated hail and/or damaging gusts
possible. Sporadic/isolated nature to the storms should preclude the
need for a watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_E6OwHk0ijLZ4Umiodakw4bKBXp8YuDk5v5MH_V9rRMXljc5ldGGr5vDtZryUGcUWQbixuSfb= HxbjpPdoTjdk64Z5Ec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41799131 41418913 40838746 40148823 40969205 41799131=20


=3D =3D =3D
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