ACUS11 KWNS 251643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251643=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-251815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...central/southern Illinois into western Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 251643Z - 251815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...There may be an increased severe weather threat early this
afternoon across central/southern Illinois and far western Indiana

DISCUSSION...Some increase in convective coverage has started across
the western portion of a remnant MCS across central/west-central
Illinois. Ahead of this activity, clear skies have permitted strong
heating with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This yields over 3000
J/kg MLCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis shows decreasing inhibition across
Illinois with an increasing cumulus field across Missouri.
Therefore, with some additional heating, expect inhibition to erode
and some increasing intensity of ongoing storms across central
Illinois. The hot and moist airmass should support a damaging wind
threat as this cluster of storms moves southeast through the
afternoon.=20

The threat should persist to the eastern extent of the greater heating/low-level moisture advection which is forecast somewhere
between Terre Haute and Indianapolis and eventually approach the
Ohio River by evening.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_27D5qCQtLpp6cVyrtT9IvSIiwIUiTgkBaOhIsCe4TcGC-Cj6Km0uBDGsfw2YtFG2cCKZBdUf= -NUIfKVo3mND4hDvA0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40788842 40748739 40348646 40008608 39578588 38868596
38368640 37988709 37878813 38348902 39228991 40119019
40439017 40648982 40788842=20


=3D =3D =3D
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