ACUS11 KWNS 260836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260835=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast KS...Far Northeast
OK...Southwest MO...Far Northwest AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461...462...

Valid 260835Z - 261000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 461, 462
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts remain possible across east-central KS and west-central MO. Additional severe potential may extend south into
portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far northeast OK, and
far northwest AR, and trends are being monitored for a possible
watch.

DISCUSSION...Complex convective evolution is underway across eastern
KS as a southeastward-progressing convective line begins to interact
with a more southward-progressing line ahead of it. This
southward-progressing line is also interacting with more cellular,
warm-air advection thunderstorms that extend from east-central KS
into far northeast OK. The quickest forward motion exists with the southeastward-progressing line over northeast KS, and the general
expectation is for this line to remain dominant as it continues
southeastward, with perhaps a shift to a more southerly motion once
it encounters the warm-air advection responsible for the
east-central/southeast KS cellular development. However, strong
updrafts exist in the Kansas City vicinity (along the western edge
of the southward-progressing line), and there is some potential this
portion begins to surge southward as it interacts with the warm-air
advection to its south.

In either case, portions of southeast KS, far southwest MO, far
northeast OK, and far northwest AR may eventually be impacted by
whatever evolves. As a result, convective trends are being monitored
for a potential watch. Until this line arrives, isolated hail is
possible within the more cellular storms across the region.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 06/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82BI1CyxZkwnXxoRICU5aD-slwPGOqGddoC8N21vJnxaSJ7IxoaAWE7Hok00Uy1eEEmrD3bbu= 8ZyMnRYvAqNk32BK_g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38829645 38839473 35949299 35489593 37439662 38829645=20


=3D =3D =3D
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