ACUS11 KWNS 051848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051847=20
MIZ000-051945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...LP of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051847Z - 051945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce severe hail/wind gusts, however,
watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show an area of clearing
across portions of the LP of Michigan as residual convection begins
to move east of the region. The resulting surface heating has
resulted in 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, with scattered storms developing.
This trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon. Despite the weak instability, effective deep-layer shear
of 40-45 kts should promote storm organization, with severe hail and
damaging wind gusts possible with the strongest cells. Severe storm
coverage is anticipated to remain somewhat isolated/transient, and
therefore, watch issuance is unlikely for the region at this time.

..Karstens/Guyer.. 07/05/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8MhirYqT-KETXJkd7ZvlLFty19G0_5d3LxepmsVKcjC1eXthLfxKaGU7pOc4NlqFvwcZIgRWM= OvT26wTVu1viLW2_jI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43278350 42238487 41898572 43638589 44958580 45568507
45228354 44348306 43278350=20


=3D =3D =3D
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