ACUS11 KWNS 120639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120638=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...Far
Northeast Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 120638Z - 120845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail will likely continue for
a few more hours from southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri and
far northeast Oklahoma. The convective cluster is expected to remain
too disorganized for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms
have developed across southeast Kansas, with embedded pulse hail
events. This activity is located along the eastern edge of a pocket
of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to
2500 J/kg range. The storms appear to be supported by a
strengthening low-level jet, that is in the 30 to 35 knot range
according the RAP. As this feature continues, thunderstorm
development will likely persist. In addition, RAP forecast soundings
in far southeast Kansas have 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km,
and enough deep-layer shear for an isolated large-hail threat. The
hail threat is expected continue for a few more hours, before the
storm complex gradually diminishes.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cJe9SFuGpLiUzuebF9D5JmG0ymZPgoHeSok2j_K6RgdFxb82KTO85TaxqERLG1FKrtr-DABu= uKFoYjhdP0G4-hqLBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37739560 36849546 36519515 36439466 36529416 36789381
37349366 37869369 38329393 38539429 38579466 38549506
38399536 38139555 37739560=20


=3D =3D =3D
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