• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1694

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Mon Jul 22 20:50:26 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 222050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222049=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-222245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1694
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern North Carolina and far
    southeastern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222049Z - 222245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized damaging wind threat is increasing across
    portions of northeastern NC and far southeastern VA. A brief tornado
    also cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms
    beginning to merge across northeastern NC. Additional thunderstorms
    were also developing along a differential heating boundary near the
    far eastern NC/VA border. These storms are an environment
    characterized by a moderately buoyant airmass and modest deep layer
    effective shear, under a belt of relatively stronger mid to upper
    level southwesterly flow. Continued cell mergers over the next 1-2
    hours will have the opportunity to produce damaging wind gusts. In
    addition, slowly increasing low-level flow may result in a localized
    increase of helicity near the aforementioned boundary through early
    this evening, and thunderstorms exhibiting more supercell like
    structures may have the opportunity to produce a brief tornado
    before the onset of nocturnal stabilization. Given the very
    localized nature of the severe threat, however, a WW is not
    anticipated at this time.

    ..Barnes/Smith.. 07/22/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4yHvhgR23QgsvNX1SRTqmesUgt7VJpILfESOHj44rREdACMLyFmaGOJqDCmZUX1DIuhDQ-ACN= 17SkkB9dq1G8KLx1VM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 37247578 37057582 36667583 36217580 35957610 35757710
    35757774 35767836 35817868 36537821 36967772 37297746
    37357674 37317619 37247578=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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