ACUS11 KWNS 031918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031917=20
FLZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...much of southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031917Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado
remain possible across southern Florida today, but a watch is not
anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating along with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints
is resulting in moderate instability, which is aiding a band of
convection over far southern FL. Additional cells east of the main
band are noted on radar, with signs of outflow surges pushing
northwestward.

Thus far, low-level shear has not strengthened much. Area VWPs
indicate 0-1 SRH values generally in the 75-100 m2/s2 range, which
is on the low-end for tornado potential. However, as the TC deepens
and low-level convergence increases, some of these bands could
become a bit better organized, at which time the stronger cells
could exhibit transient mesocyclones. Otherwise, moderate mean winds
in the lowest few km will favor strong to locally damaging wind
gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8dlWGvvV4tAbNC3810kBpw5GVGZBvl99WgftlokSxJ4sz87OuUtZMJfWVxiX0R7Ww9-sJtflA= VCi_ihUr4Xtpk6XMTk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 26178205 26898248 27478282 27958283 28268216 28028127
27388032 26807993 26017996 25408010 24908050 24558131
24418208 24658221 25598211 26178205=20


=3D =3D =3D
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