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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1849

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Tue Aug 6 20:45:12 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 062045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062044=20
    AZZ000-CAZ000-062245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1849
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024

    Areas affected...Central and Southern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 062044Z - 062245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some severe thunderstorms will be possible across central
    and southern Arizona this afternoon and evening, capable of
    primarily damaging straight-line winds. Watch issuance remains
    uncertain at this time, given uncertainty in future convective
    development and organization.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the Mogollon Rim in
    Arizona, where daytime heating has resulted in surface temperatures
    in the mid-to-upper 90s F at the top of the rim, and low-to-mid 100s
    F down in the lower desert. Deep inverted-v boundary-layer profiles
    and generally weak flow aloft will support damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow.=20

    Current upper-air analyses and water vapor satellite trends suggest
    a belt of modest 20-25 kt easterly flow beginning to overspread
    central and southern Arizona, which could aid in convective
    organization and an increased severe threat. However, given
    convection has yet to move off of the Mogollon Rim, there is
    significant uncertainty in the magnitude of convective organization
    that can be expected.

    ..Halbert/Lyons/Hart.. 08/06/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_lb4y8OIOzi10Sp-oWBGnhzJka1gYGcTKe-2PYec88WfN4GMu7Os3IFrzN9nXHhxBPerJtCHN= uVYdQ1M7O1WQ7jKmKk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 34571408 35221360 35641309 35661222 35491175 35111146
    34761117 34471106 33991112 33471121 32981154 32461199
    32241278 32331359 32471371 32911401 33421416 33851421
    34571408=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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