ACUS11 KWNS 071257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071256=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-071500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...Parts of coastal NC into extreme northeast SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071256Z - 071500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado or two may develop this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Multiple bands of convection to the northeast of
Tropical Storm Debby are approaching coastal NC this morning, with
occasional weak rotation noted offshore. Widespread cloudiness will
inhibit diurnal heating inland today, but tropical moisture will
continue to support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg near the coast, where
temperatures can remain in the upper 70s to near 80 F (as noted on
the 12Z MHX sounding).=20

Low-level shear remains somewhat favorable for transient rotating
cells, with 0-1 km SRH generally in the 100-200 m2/s2 range for
observed storm motions this morning. As Debby gradually moves east-northeastward, slightly stronger low-level flow may overspread
parts of coastal NC through the day, maintaining a low but
persistent threat for a brief tornado, should any stronger cells
develop and be sustained within banded convection over the northeast
quadrant of Debby.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/07/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9d_ZVItNBLpNkNN7If8g_oSMSpZOY2VbBRVdqPcP8W-ZpuwQ5GhpSFsfUxUmsX9MYVdHR-Mnc= 1RGFdKPCQV0FTA0Jac$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 34317873 35117800 35667686 35557617 35047591 34567628
34087713 33727759 33487808 33307883 33467910 33947899
34317873=20


=3D =3D =3D
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