ACUS11 KWNS 170039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170038=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-170215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Areas affected...Portions of western Oklahoma into far northwestern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628...

Valid 170038Z - 170215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 628
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 628. Severe wind and hail remain the primary threats over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A robust uptick in convective coverage and intensity
has been noted in north-central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas over
the past couple of hours, where severe wind and hail have been
observed. Despite weak forcing, thunderstorms have managed to
initiate off of multiple converging low-level baroclinic/outflow
boundaries. Furthermore, the OUN 00Z observed sounding shows near
3000 J/kg MLCAPE atop a mixed boundary layer, characterized by 30F
T/Td spreads. 20-30 F spreads are also evident across eastern OK
ahead of the ongoing storms, with 00Z mesoanalysis depicting over
4500 J/kg MLCAPE (given mid 70s F surface dewpoints). Meanwhile, the
00Z OUN sounding, as well as VNX, TLX, and INX VAD profilers show
hodographs with modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation,
supporting supercell structures when accounting for the strong to
locally extreme buoyancy in place. As such, supercells may persist
into northeast OK over the next few hours with a continued
severe-wind threat, though large hail is also possible.

..Squitieri.. 08/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47JFbmNvTuwls3VK5Ewe8JI4hPfDzVhYz6cTrRhkmtqGeq0NJED8aHY0vlVGE8a4Jd4kkyyg0= 8FU6a941MtIFQ5lkGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35209990 36199857 36849753 37039542 36979429 36659377
36289372 36029411 35869555 35629666 35099774 34889843
34939930 35209990=20


=3D =3D =3D
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