ACUS11 KWNS 252239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252239=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-260045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Areas affected...Northeast WY into western SD and extreme southeast
MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252239Z - 260045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been noted as a cluster
of high-based convection and related outflow have moved into a
post-frontal regime across the Black Hills. Short-term evolution of
this convection remains uncertain, with more favorable
moisture/instability with eastward extent, but also substantial
CINH. However, with relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates and
favorable deep-layer shear in place, some increase in storm coverage
and organization is possible. Strong to locally severe storms
capable of localized severe gusts and hail will be possible into
early evening. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but
will be reevaluated if trends support a more-organized severe
threat.

..Dean/Gleason.. 08/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rm6ohCZtML3JXwITJOwr3CfNmcju0zAwg5sB42slWQiAlH47oTS5-byoqQgtN3ygZ3HErfRV= elVu02orjmW3Rh2ZRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 44680505 45630417 45500213 43750193 43140380 44250441
44680505=20


=3D =3D =3D
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