ACUS11 KWNS 282052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282051=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-282315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Areas affected...north-central South Dakota into North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 282051Z - 282315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are likely to develop over the
next couple hours, with very large hail, damaging gusts, and a
tornado or two expected.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low over west-central SD, with
a pre-frontal trough extending northward into western ND. A cold
front continues to surge eastward across the western Dakotas,
enhancing low-level convergence.

Meanwhile, a warm front currently extends from near Bismarck into
northeast SD, with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints nearby. The
combination of daytime heating and the moist air mass had led to a
pocket of strong destabilization with several thousand MUCAPE
despite mediocre midlevel lapse rates.

Visible imagery show rapidly develop cumulus fields in the warmer
air near the surface low, and farther north into central ND where
convergence is maximized along the boundaries. Given the continued
heating and convergence, storms are expected to form within the next
couple hours.

Veering winds with height along with the approaching upper trough
will favor slow-moving supercells at first, producing very large
hail and perhaps a tornado or two. With time, a linear storm mode is
likely with damaging winds.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/28/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tok9VNJt_B2OyR3BWvNiylXxcZZno-w8J4V8W0wagcgUHXFSM-vnBw7AVoLA1WNbXyhlwyEI= fxFw_vBE6IojkKTfR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 43870145 44490137 45210132 45990140 46470156 46870179
47250198 47610172 47670083 47390020 46849972 46349940
45599934 44909942 44279968 43900007 43600073 43610126
43870145=20


=3D =3D =3D
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