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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2075

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Tue Sep 17 02:11:00 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 170210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170210=20
    NDZ000-170345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2075
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of northern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

    Valid 170210Z - 170345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible across
    portions of northern North Dakota -- within Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 673.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KMBX indicates a persistent
    cluster of thunderstorms tracking eastward along an
    east/west-oriented warm front/stationary boundary draped across
    northern North Dakota. Along the southern periphery of the cluster,
    a couple deeper/embedded rotating updrafts are evident, aided by
    warmer/moister inflow south of the boundary, and
    favorable/increasing low-level hodograph curvature (sampled by
    regional VWP data). In the near-term, large hail (generally up to
    1.75 inches) and locally severe wind gusts are the primary concerns
    with these embedded supercell structures.

    During the next few hours, this cluster of storms should maintain
    its current intensity and organization as it continues generally
    eastward along the boundary -- aided by mesoscale forcing associated
    with an embedded MCV and a plume of low-level warm advection atop
    the boundary. The primary severe risk may remain focused along the
    southern periphery of the larger thunderstorm cluster, with less
    certainty north of the boundary where low-level inhibition is
    greater.

    ..Weinman.. 09/17/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6lQqOyglDDxag3ZZlG0oInBaRSU1K1Wt2onNVIgeQ14WpnMhi-0EOcJXd1sCSCkWh7bCyJAzh= LxrBl35B4b-wxUBUao$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48040104 48410063 48769990 48899941 48939852 48749794
    48249766 47849790 47759825 47600072 47690110 48040104=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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