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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2161

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to [email protected] on Wed Oct 30 14:08:10 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 301408
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301407=20
    MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-301530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2161
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0907 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

    Areas affected...central/northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301407Z - 301530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of some large hail are possible
    this morning from portions of central Kansas into southeast
    Nebraska.

    DISCUSSION...Lightning has increased across central Kansas as ascent
    increases across the Plains within a moderately unstable
    environment. The TOP 12Z RAOB indicated around 1300 J/kg MUCAPE and
    continued low-level moisture advection and mid-level cooling should
    increase instability as the morning progresses. Effective shear was
    actually quite weak at 12Z with a 60 knot low-level jet near the
    low-level jet and 60 knots at 7km with weaker flow between this
    layer. However, as the mid-level jet streak approaches the region
    and nocturnal influences of the low-level jet reduce, a more
    favorable, gradually increasing wind profile with height is expected
    to develop by late morning to early afternoon. As instability and
    the wind profile improve, eventually expect some supercells to
    develop along or slightly on the cool side of the cold front.
    Isolated large hail will be the primary threat from this activity
    later this morning and into the early afternoon. A watch likely will
    not be needed in the short term.

    ..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zV14lXKT2T3Tti1InTCSCA5sUWV3iXoqxb9TMOmazva07u9xPFtFNBQdEvn7xpxgzUjuPjMN= PWg6KbnZMZfw69i2Y0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37110000 37939979 39269915 39729849 40519649 40619585
    40539567 40359558 39959604 38889745 38299801 37699865
    37329913 37069966 37110000=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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