ACUS11 KWNS 180803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180802 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-180930-
Mesoscale Discussion 2229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024
Areas affected...much of northwestern Texas into southwestern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 180802Z - 180930Z
CORRECTED FOR TIME REFERENCE TO CST
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few
tornadoes may begin to increase with an evolving squall line
accelerating northeast of the Texas South Plains through much of
northwestern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma by 3-5 AM CST.
DISCUSSION...Downstream of a 90+ kt 500 mb jet streak beginning to
nose northeast of the Texas Big Bend into the Pecos Valley, strong
forcing for ascent continues to aid the evolution of a squall line
in advance of a deepening surface low now near/southwest of Lubbock. Instability is still rather weak in the presence of thermodynamic
profiles characterized by modest mid-level lapse rates, but weak
low-level lapse rates and modest moisture. However, low-level and
deep-layer shear is strong, and an ill-defined meso-beta scale
mid-level cyclonic circulation is now progressing northeast of
Lubbock.=20=20
A number of better defined meso-gamma scale cyclonic circulations
are evident along the line, which has been surging northeastward
around 30 kt, to the northeast of the mid-level circulation. This
appears likely to propagate into the Altus OK vicinity through
09-11Z, with the southern flank of the line progressing across the
Abilene TX vicinity.
=20
In response to the deepening surface troughing, a gradual
north-northwestward advection of mid 60s to near 70F surface dew
points toward the upstream squall line will gradually contribute to
somewhat more unstable updraft inflow. This may also contribute to
a boundary-layer at least marginally more supportive of downward
momentum transfer to the surface and potential for tornadoes, as
low-level shear intensifies beneath an 850 mb jet forecast to
strengthen in excess of 50 kt.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 11/18/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-l_NNB_qckDrSPg-oIPr3-9-HAPwUtEioGtsKWpIH9Nsx-ReqWpcMoCrk1yaTCXBexsGsnbx5= ngyec87TEUJgfr9guI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 33610035 34130064 35169968 35239810 34159800 32049873
31479966 31470050 32160084 33610035=20
=3D =3D =3D
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